V3 Research
Will ETH Fall Again? Is an Upswing Still on the Cards?
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Trader Philakone predicts a short-term top within 2 %, expecting wave-4 correction to $3,312–3,512 before ETH surges past $4K.
Twitter
Tweet notes ETH’s muted price action; author sees possibility of a fall toward $2,000 if current conditions persist, despite recent support from Vitalik.
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BJay cites an 8.18 % 24-hour drop suggesting near-term consolidation or dip, yet highlights strong uptrend from $2,200 to $4,216 and positive fund flows.
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BlacaPZ observes price action above $4,104 and warns shorting may be risky; key pivot level identified at $3,338 despite overbought readings.

Key Findings

  1. Short-term Downside: With profit-taking near historical resistance, ETH could dip into the mid-$3,000s in the short term 948.
  2. Network Fundamentals and Mid-term Outlook: Robust trading volumes and falling DeFi fees continue to support Ethereum’s mid-term prospects 10.
  3. 2025 Price Forecasts: Various analysts project ETH to trade in the $5K–$7K range by 2025, indicating significant upside potential even after a correction 56743.

Short-term Technical Trends

  • Profit-taking Pressure: CryptoNews reports that short-term holders have locked in approximately $553 million in profits, which is adding to the sell pressure 9.
  • Trading Idea: Binance Square points to repeated resistance in the $4,780–$4,800 range and suggests aggressive selling towards $4,600 should the $4,680 level fail 48.
  • Correction Warning: A commentator on X cautions that a pullback to the $3,300–$3,500 range may unfold before the next upward move.

Fundamentals and On-chain Factors

  • Drivers of Rising Volume: CoinDesk attributes the surge in Ethereum trading volume to network upgrades and lower DeFi fees, signalling positive organic demand 10.
  • Declining Exchange Balances: Exchange holdings have hit multi‐year lows, hinting at a tightening supply backdrop (see chart below). Declining ETH Exchange Balances 33

Mid-term Forecasts and Catalysts

  • 2025 Valuations: Cryptomus, 99Bitcoins, and LiteFinance estimate ETH valuations in the ~$4.9K–$7K range for 2025, driven by ETF approvals and DeFi expansion 567.
  • Altcoin Power List: Binance Square’s 2025 Altcoin Power List further reinforces the bullish scenario with targets between $5K and $7K 43.
  • Market Optimism: Kalshi’s forecast has already re-priced 2025 at $6.1K, reflecting growing bullish sentiment among derivatives traders (see chart below). Kalshi Forecast: ETH >$6K 21

Risk Scenarios and Key Levels to Watch

  • Downside Risk: A decisive drop below $3.3K could undermine several bullish structures highlighted in current models 5.
  • Upside Catalyst: Conversely, a weekly or monthly close above $4.8K may trigger short-covering, paving the way for a move into the $5K–$7K range.

Conclusion

While a dip into the low $3K territory remains possible, solid fundamentals and the majority of forecasts point to higher prices over the next 6–12 months. Traders may view dips below $3.3K as accumulation opportunities, provided they maintain appropriate stop-loss levels.
19 days ago