Key Beneficiaries & Catalysts

• Bitcoin (BTC): The Financial Services Agency (FSA) is pressing for a 20% separate tax and domestic Bitcoin ETF approval, giving BTC both tax parity and a new institutional distribution channel 32321.
• Ethereum (ETH) and major altcoins: A nationwide survey shows investors plan to add ETH and other high-liquidity coins alongside BTC when the punitive 55% bracket disappears 5. Lower compliance costs and loss-carry rules further improve the appeal for large-cap assets 237.
• Yen-pegged stablecoins (e.g., RLUSD): Planned approvals of yen-backed stablecoins in 2025 will provide local fiat on-ramps and trading pairs, indirectly supporting demand for core crypto assets 16.

Investor Sentiment & Demand Signals

• Reddit discussions already celebrate the draft legislation, indicating grassroots enthusiasm for the 20% cap 1.
• TradingView’s poll quantifies the effect: most respondents would increase allocations to BTC, ETH, and altcoins under a friendlier tax regime 5.
• Market researchers project the Japanese crypto market will grow at a 14.4% CAGR to 2030, suggesting ample headroom once tax friction is removed 30.

Regulatory Roadmap & Timing

• The FSA aims to embed the 20% regime in the 2026 fiscal-year tax code, replacing the current progressive system that can reach 55% 31123.
• Reclassifying crypto as a “financial product” aligns it with equities, enables ETF issuance, and standardizes investor protections 152122.
• Loss carry-forward for up to three years will mirror stock market rules, cushioning volatility for active traders 237.

Implications & Risks

• Tax parity and ETFs position BTC and ETH as default portfolio assets for both retail and institutions, but cultural risk aversion could still temper adoption, as critics note 17.
• Implementation is at least 18–24 months away; policy slippage or political change remain execution risks 1123.