Executive Summary

Polymarket Arbitrage & Prediction Strategy

• The Meteora Play: Meteora is the consensus favorite, having peaked at ~48% odds before stabilizing around 28–37% following ZachXBT's warning of a potential leak 1[30]. The trade here is binary: betting "Yes" assumes the leak is accurate, while betting "No" (or hedging with other candidates) capitalizes on the uncertainty introduced by ZachXBT's comments 510.
• The Axiom Hedge: Axiom has emerged as the strong second contender (15–30% odds), with significant "Yes" volume increasing as traders hedge against a Meteora "fakeout" [22][34].
• Long-Tail Bets: Pump.fun and MEXC hold lower probabilities (8–12%), offering high-reward asymmetry if the investigation targets infrastructure providers rather than protocols 6[17].

Short Selling & Token Volatility

• Meteora (MET): The token has already priced in significant bad news, dropping 14–24% on rumors alone 9[12]. On-chain data reveals whales depositing USDC into platforms like Hyperliquid to open leveraged short positions against MET [18]. However, the risk of a "sell the rumor, buy the news" squeeze is high if the report is less damning than expected [36].
• Axiom (AXM): While less liquid, Axiom represents a cleaner short opportunity if the investigation pivots away from Meteora, as it has not seen the same depth of pre-event sell-offs [17][26].
• Platform Risks: Traders are using platforms like Hyperliquid and Aevo for pre-market and perp trading, but liquidity crunches and high funding rates are significant risks during the reveal [15][41].

Meme Coin & Ecosystem Contagion

• Solana Ecosystem: If Pump.fun is implicated, expect knee-jerk sell-offs in major Solana meme coins due to fears of platform-level risks or regulatory scrutiny [14][24].
• Narrative Plays: Historically, "justice" or "investigation" themed meme coins often launch immediately post-report. Monitoring new pairs on Solana for tickers related to the exposed entity could yield high-risk, short-term scalps [40].

Further Exploration

• Monitor ZachXBT's Twitter: The release will likely be a thread or document link; speed is critical [24].
• Track On-Chain Flows: Watch for large transfers from Meteora or Axiom team wallets, which often precede bad news.
• Check Funding Rates: Extreme negative funding on MET shorts may signal an overcrowded trade ripe for a squeeze.