V3 Research
Native Markets Leads Hyperliquid’s USDH Issuer Vote

Native Markets Favored to Secure Hyperliquid’s USDH Issuance Mandate

Native Markets is presently the odds-on favorite to secure Hyperliquid’s USDH issuance mandate, leading both prediction markets and preliminary validator votes. However, the final on-chain decision could still swing if rival proposals gain last-minute support 191011.

Current Standings & Key Drivers

  • Market signals: Polymarket gives Native Markets a 65-84% probability, and early validator tallies show it in front 191011.
  • Competitive field: Paxos, Ethena, Sky, Frax, Agora, and others have all filed GENIUS-compliant bids ahead of Sunday’s vote 24622.
  • Community sentiment: Critics worry Native Markets’ Stripe linkage may centralize control, while Ethena touts a “guardian” validator set to ease those fears 12256.
  • Economic sweeteners: Paxos, Ethena, and Sky promise to recycle 95%+ of reserve yield back to users via HYPE buybacks or direct incentives, influencing voter calculus 1415622.

Why Native Markets Leads

  1. Early momentum: It gathered validator backing first and has maintained a polling edge throughout the week 910.
  2. Simplicity: Its proposal avoids complex new collateral structures, appealing to risk-averse validators focused on execution speed 14.
  3. Liquidity routing: As Hyperliquid’s key market-maker, Native Markets can immediately plug USDH into existing perps order books, boosting trading depth from day one 1011.

Money-Making Opportunities Around the Vote

  1. Prediction markets: Traders can speculate on the outcome via Polymarket odds that still price non-zero chances for Paxos or Ethena upsets 1011.
  2. HYPE token: Proposals redirect up to 95% of USDH reserve interest into HYPE buybacks; accumulating HYPE ahead of a Paxos or Ethena win offers asymmetric upside, while a Native Markets victory poses less buyback flow but tighter launch timelines 141543.
  3. Liquidity mining: Winning issuer pledges hefty incentives—Paxos (reserve reinvestment until $1B TVL) and Ethena ($150M program) could translate into high APR pools for early USDH depositors 131436.
  4. Arbitrage: USDH will be mint-redeemable at US$1; traders can exploit peg deviations similar to Hoard and Hubble mechanisms once live 2829.
  5. Validator staking & gas auctions: Teams must bid for deployment gas; validators that back the winner may earn extra fees and delegated stake rewards 314.

Risks & Catalysts

  • Governance backlash: This could still unseat Native Markets if concerns over centralization intensify 1225.
  • Regulatory clarity: MiCA alignment in Paxos’ bid adds long-term legitimacy that may sway neutral voters late in the process 213.
  • Final vote result: Expected Sunday night, will trigger rapid market repricing of HYPE and related governance tokens.