Analyze the FDV probability distribution of $ZAMA at TGE+1 day

V3 Research

Overview of factors that can shift ZAMA’s fully diluted valuation after TGE, including auction clearing price, token distribution, unlock behavior, and profit‑taking. Emphasizes how new information around pricing and supply can move the post‑launch FDV significantly.

Kalshi

Defines a binary market where settlement depends on whether ZAMA’s FDV, as displayed on CoinGecko, is above $600,000,000 exactly at 10:00 AM one day after launch. Clarifies timing, data source, and the condition for a Yes/No resolution.

MLQ.ai

Aggregated prediction market listing for ZAMA’s FDV thresholds one day after launch. Describes binary settlement criteria for multiple FDV levels, enabling inference of market‑implied probabilities and distribution shape across post‑TGE valuation outcomes.

Twitter

Mentions rising odds on a platform for ZAMA’s FDV exceeding $800M one day after launch, citing a Yes probability around 31.6%. Reflects bullish sentiment dynamics; actual settlement depends on official resolution sources and pricing at the target time.

Conclusion

Prediction markets imply ZAMA’s TGE+1-day FDV is most likely in the $500M–$700M band, with roughly 46%–69% odds of finishing above $600M and low double-digit odds for $1B+ 22 23 24 5.

Executive Summary

Market odds across Polymarket and aggregators cluster ZAMA’s day-after-launch FDV around the mid-hundreds of millions, with >$600M priced near even and >$800M materially lower 22 23 24 5 34.

The sealed-bid Dutch auction, concentrated bidding around ~$550M FDV, and a $0.05 (~$550M FDV) clearing price anchor expectations; small float and OG allocations shape near-term supply dynamics 33 43 39 38 35 41 44.

Market-Implied Probabilities at TGE+1 Day

Prediction markets provide threshold odds that outline a right-tailed distribution. Snapshots show P(FDV > $400M) ~80%–92%, P(> $500M) ~72%–74%, P(> $600M) ranging ~46%–69%, and P(> $800M) ~26%; P(> $1B) around ~11% 22 23 24 5. These probabilities reference “one day after launch” resolution criteria used by Polymarket, aligning the measurement window across thresholds 34.

The spread across sources reflects timing and liquidity differences but consistently centers the mass between $500M and $700M FDV. Variations around the $600M node (46%–69%) indicate a market that is undecided at the margin and sensitive to immediate post-TGE flows and venue pricing 22 23 5 34.

Auction Mechanics and Clearing-Price Sensitivity

Zama ran a sealed-bid Dutch auction with an on-chain, encrypted bidding process and a $55M FDV floor; total supply is 11B tokens, with 8% offered in the public sale 35 39 38 37. Bidding reportedly concentrated around the ~$550M FDV area, making this level a natural focal point for post-TGE pricing 33.

Subsequent reporting indicates the auction cleared at $0.05, implying an FDV of ~$550M; this anchors the reference point for day-after-launch FDV scenarios 43. With a total supply of 11B, each FDV threshold translates into price levels (e.g., $600M ≈ $0.0545, $800M ≈ $0.0727), so deviations from the $0.05 clearing price directly shift probability mass across thresholds 39 38 43.

Supply, Unlocks, and Overhang Dynamics

FDV measures total value assuming full circulation; small circulating supply at TGE can amplify volatility without changing FDV mechanics 40. Zama’s OG NFT program allocates 2% of supply with an option to buy at $0.005 (~$55M FDV), potentially introducing low-cost holders whose decisions can influence early price discovery 41 44.

Community commentary also highlights limited initial public-sale unlocks (e.g., 12% cited) that, together with OG supply, shape near-term flows and depth; such dynamics can tilt outcomes around the $600M–$800M thresholds depending on realized liquidity and demand absorption 9 41 44. The combination of a “clean” float and concentrated cost basis can either stabilize near auction levels or exacerbate moves if liquidity is thin 9 1.

Measurement and Resolution Considerations

Polymarket markets resolve based on whether FDV is above specified thresholds exactly one day after launch, using public price sources (e.g., CoinGecko conventions) 34. A parallel binary market on Kalshi defines a $600M threshold at a precise timestamp (10:00 AM the day after launch) as displayed on CoinGecko, clarifying resolution mechanics participants trade against 2.

Because FDV is price times fully diluted supply (not circulating supply), short-term price swings can produce large FDV changes; thus, the TGE+1-day checkpoint captures a volatile window where microstructure and venue spreads matter disproportionately 40 1. Different venues’ price prints and liquidity profiles can lead to brief divergences, but resolution rules specify the source of truth used for settlement 2 34.

Scenario Synthesis and Implications

Given the $0.05 (~$550M FDV) auction anchor, the market needs only a modest premium to clear $600M (~$0.0545), which aligns with near-even odds around that threshold 22 23 5 39 38 43. Conversely, reaching $800M (~$0.0727) requires a significantly larger premium, consistent with the lower market-implied probability (~26%) for that outcome 24 39 38.

Practically, the distribution’s center of mass is governed by auction clearing, initial liquidity, and early-holder behavior. If post-TGE liquidity is robust and buy-side demand outpaces OG/public-sale supply, the right tail (>$800M) becomes more plausible; otherwise, outcomes cluster near $500M–$600M with balanced risk around $600M 22 23 24 5 43.

Further Exploration

Track real-time Polymarket order flow and odds drift into the resolution window to refine the live probability curve 34.

Map venue price spreads (CoinGecko components) and depth to anticipate transient FDV spikes at the checkpoint 2 40.

Monitor OG NFT exercise/behavior and public-sale unlock flows to gauge near-term sell pressure 41 44 9.

Stress-test scenarios using price/FDV conversions at 11B supply for risk management thresholds 39 38.

Compare auction book distribution (Dune) and clearing dynamics against post-TGE prints for slippage patterns 36 43.

FDV Threshold	Market-Implied P(>Threshold)	Implied Token Price (@11B)	Notes/Source
> $400M	~80%–92% 22 23	≈ $0.036 39 38	High confidence zone from Polymarket snapshots 22 23.
> $500M	~72%–74% 22 23	≈ $0.045 39 38	Still strongly favored across snapshots 22 23.
> $600M	~46%–69% 23 5	≈ $0.055 39 38	Near-even odds; auction cleared ~$0.05 (~$550M) 43.
> $800M	~26% 24	≈ $0.073 39 38	Requires sizable premium to auction price 24.
> $1B	~11% 22	≈ $0.091 39 38	Low-probability right tail 22.

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30 days ago