V3 Research
Analyze the probability distribution of BTC price at Feb 10
Conclusion
A blended options- and prediction-market view centers BTC near the mid-$80Ks to low-$90Ks for Feb 10, 2026, with fat tails. Binance’s reported $1B BTC buy likely lifts sentiment modestly but has limited mechanical impact on the distribution 8241117.
Indicative distribution (synthesized from options-implied volatility, prediction-market thresholds, and prevailing positioning; directional, not a guarantee) 2481212628:
Executive Summary
- We infer a single-day probability distribution for Feb 10, 2026 by triangulating options-implied volatility/positioning, prediction-market thresholds, and futures anchoring; the mode lies in the upper-$70Ks to low-$90Ks, with materially fat tails on both sides 2482634.
- Reports around Binance’s $1B BTC buy appear to operate mainly through sentiment and confidence transmission rather than large mechanical price impact; we reflect this as a qualitative upward tilt rather than a structural regime shift 11101217.
Methodology: From Options, Prediction Markets, and Anchors
We map a one-day distribution by combining: (a) options-implied information (volatility levels, skew, and max-pain magnets), (b) prediction-market thresholds for February highs, and (c) a futures/spot anchor range around early-February levels 2426834. Options-based approaches (including probability distributions inferred from option prices) are widely used; where post-trade greeks or full chains are unavailable, we reference implied-volatility indices and positioning to shape tails and the central mass 4524. Prediction markets supply contemporaneous odds for one-touch levels (e.g., $82.5K/$85K/$87.5K on Kalshi) and higher thresholds ($95K/$115K on Polymarket), offering a complementary gauge of market-implied event probabilities through February 8121.
Bitcoin return distributions are empirically heavy-tailed and non-Gaussian, so we avoid normal assumptions and allow fatter tails consistent with historical evidence and options-implied signals 1819. We then align the central region with observed strikes, max-pain tendencies (~$88K nearby), and prevailing vol regime, while respecting that prediction-market odds for very high thresholds in February remain modest, keeping top-tail probabilities contained for a single session 2624121.
Market Context and Volatility Regime into Early February 2026
Implied volatility rose sharply into late January 2026 (Deribit DVOL from ~37 to >44), reflecting jittery positioning, then eased around the first options expiry, underscoring a still-reactive regime where tails can thicken quickly 2425. A large options expiry (~$8.5B notional) around Jan 30 with a reported ~$88K max-pain and a bullish skew (put-call ~0.56) implies meaningful gravitational levels and an asymmetric upside bias if spot leans above key strikes, though post-expiry dynamics can reset 2627. Short-dated IVs ran >45% into the late-January macro catalysts, reinforcing the need to allow heavier single-day tails than a calm regime would suggest 2824.
Prediction markets indicate February hurdles are achievable but not trivial: Kalshi shows non-negligible odds to touch $82.5K/$85K/$87.5K, while Polymarket hosts markets on $95K/$115K that price modest chances of reaching very high levels within the month, collectively implying a central mass in the upper-$70Ks to low-$90Ks range with tempered top-tails 8121. Over longer horizons, expert ranges remain wide (e.g., $75K–$150K with ~$110K center), yet those multi-month views shouldn’t be over-projected into a single trading day 7.
Incorporating Binance’s Reported BTC Purchase
Community discussions and reports around Binance’s BTC buying emphasized that execution could be internal (“inside the platform”), and commentary framed the action as a sentiment and confidence anchor more than an immediate driver of a sustained up-leg 101211. Empirical work on market impact (e.g., Keyrock’s Lambda-based analysis) finds that even large institutional buys tend to have limited lasting price impact per unit volume in BTC/USDT markets, supporting restraint when translating such flows into large probability shifts 17.
Accordingly, we incorporate Binance’s reported activity as a qualitative, mild upward tilt to sentiment rather than a step-change to the distribution’s shape; the central mass remains anchored by options-implied levels, prediction-market thresholds, and prevailing macro/volatility context 1117824. This treatment acknowledges the confidence channel while respecting evidence that mechanical impact from institutional flows is usually contained absent broader regime catalysts 1724.
Interpreting the Distribution and Scenario Risks
Downside scenarios remain plausible given the heavy-tailed nature of BTC and options-implied sensitivity; research shows BTC returns deviate from Gaussian behavior, and options data into early 2026 highlighted both spikes and resets in volatility, so left-tail outcomes cannot be dismissed even if prediction markets place central mass above $80K 18248. Longer-dated views include explicit probabilities of sub-$80K by mid-year, reminding that near-term draws can materialize even in constructive cycles; while that’s a multi-month horizon, it informs the existence of a meaningful lower tail on any given day 29.
On the upside, one-touch thresholds into the high-$80Ks appear attainable, and month-high markets at $95K/$115K leave room for episodic squeezes if positioning and flows align, but the evidence doesn’t support assigning a dominant probability to >$100K closes on Feb 10; we thus cap the top-tail in single digits to high-teens depending on bin width 8121. Futures references and options “max pain” around the high-$80Ks suggest clustering, consistent with a mode in the upper-$70Ks to low-$90Ks range under current conditions 2634.
Further Exploration
- Re-calibrate with the nearest weekly/bi-weekly option chains (e.g., Deribit DVOL and skew) to update tail thickness and central tendency as Feb 10 approaches 2428.
- Pull fresh Kalshi and Polymarket odds for February thresholds ($82.5K/$85K/$87.5K/$95K/$115K) to refine bin edges and top-tail estimates 8121.
- Track large options expiries and strike clusters (e.g., ~$88K max-pain) that can act as magnets or repellers around the date 26.
- Monitor headlines around institutional flows and Binance-related developments for sentiment shifts while weighting mechanical impact conservatively per market-impact research 1117.
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