The missing value in your query typically refers to specific valuation thresholds—most notably $500 Million, $700 Million, or $1 Billion—used in prediction markets to forecast Backpack's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) 24 hours after its token launch 16. While $500 Million is currently the baseline expectation with a probability of approximately 55% 16, the $1 Billion threshold is the most significant psychological benchmark, matching the project's private "unicorn" valuation, though traders assign it a lower probability of 21%–26% 45.

Market data highlights a divergence between Backpack's private funding ambitions and public market sentiment. While the exchange has reportedly sought or secured funding at a $1 billion valuation 78, prediction markets are skeptical that the token ($BP) will immediately sustain this level post-launch. Traders currently price the token's launch FDV closer to the $500M–$700M range 15, viewing the "unicorn" outcome as a less likely scenario 34.

Traders on platforms like Polymarket have established distinct probability tiers for the token's performance one day after launch. The market structure allows participants to bet on whether the FDV will exceed specific milestones:

The Unicorn Ambition: Backpack Exchange, led by former FTX executives, has targeted a $1 billion valuation for its capital raises 78. This figure serves as the primary anchor for the high-end prediction market threshold.

Market Reality Check: Despite the high private valuation, pre-market indicators suggest a more conservative opening. Data points to an implied FDV around $644 million 5, with liquidity concentrated in the $500M–$700M range 19. This discount likely reflects anticipated selling pressure from airdrops and broader market conditions 5.

 

 

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