V3 Research
Forecast the bitcoin price at the end of 2025;will it be a "melt down" or "melt up"?
Changelly
Changelly’s forecast projects Bitcoin at roughly $92,000 by November 2025, with technical indicators pointing to continued growth into year-end.
Economic Times
Bloomberg Intelligence outlines three 2025-2026 paths: base case sideways, upside to $150k, and downside crash toward $10k amid volatility.
Markets.com
Markets.com notes predicting exact 2025 prices is difficult but consensus expectations cluster near six figures, contingent on macro trends.
Ainvest
Analysis links Bitcoin’s 2025 swings to global M2 growth correlations of 0.5 overall and 0.69 in the eurozone, highlighting macro sensitivity.

Conclusion

Most cross-market analyses anticipate Bitcoin closing 2025 higher than today—somewhere in the $100,000-$150,000 band—implying a net “melt-up,” but with material tail-risk of a sharp drawdown if liquidity tightens or risk-off shocks occur 1715.

Executive Summary

  • Consensus targets cluster around $100k-$150k, driven by ETF inflows, the post-halving cycle, and easing monetary policy.
  • Bearish scenarios (sub-$60k) hinge on macro shocks, regulatory setbacks, or severe liquidity contractions, leaving a 20-30% probability of a late-2025 “melt-down.”

Cycle Drivers and Technical Setup

Bitcoin’s fourth-halving playbook historically delivers parabolic gains 6–18 months afterward; analysts therefore extrapolate a strong 2025 rally, with several models pointing to six-figure prices 791518. On-chain dormancy metrics and declining exchange balances support the supply-shock thesis, while optimistic roll-offs to 2026 suggest a cycle top delay 2732. Yet volatility remains elevated: options data shows only a 30% chance of settling above $100k, underscoring bimodal expectations 14.

Macro Liquidity and Institutional Flows

Correlations with global M2 growth (0.5 overall, 0.69 in the eurozone) imply Bitcoin tracks broad liquidity waves 4. Forecasted Fed cuts toward 3% by late-2026 could revive risk appetite, underpinning a melt-up narrative 34. Spot ETF approvals have channeled multi-billion inflows, echoing the gold-ETF precedent cited in Goldman-style “melt-up” theses 1224. Conversely, Bloomberg and Forbes warn a liquidity vacuum could drag BTC to $40k–$60k or even $10k in extreme stress cases 22637.

Sentiment Shocks and Crash Scenarios

Late-2025 sell-offs—such as the hypothetical “Great Crash of 2025” down 30% in days—show how leverage flush-outs can erase yearly gains, even within a secular bull market 112132. Arthur Hayes and other veterans flag $80k as plausible during liquidity squeezes, keeping downside hedges prudent 38. Reddit threads and option skew reflect traders bracing for a violent unwinding if crowded longs meet hawkish surprises 2835.

Probability-Weighted Outcomes

A synthesis of 18 forecasts yields the following distribution:
ScenarioYear-end 2025 PriceKey CatalystsImplied Probability
Melt-up $150k–$250k ETF inflows, post-halving FOMO, dovish Fed 25% 71624
Moderate Gain $100k–$150k Gradual adoption, stable macro 40% 1315
Range-bound $60k–$100k Mixed macro, regulatory noise 20% 81330
Melt-down <$60k Liquidity crunch, severe risk-off, regulatory hit 15% 22637

Further Exploration

  1. Monitor Fed rate-cut timelines versus ETF inflow momentum.
  2. Track option-market skew for early warning of melt-down stress.
  3. Compare on-chain dormancy and exchange reserves monthly.
  4. Evaluate macro M2 growth against BTC price elasticity.
  5. Back-test halving-cycle models versus 2025 realized data.
 
 
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