A day after TGE, the market-implied distribution centers on ~$0.017–$0.030, with a lower tail near ~$0.006–$0.012 and an upper tail >$0.03, inferred from Polymarket FDV odds and the 34.36B total supply, and anchored by pre-market prints near ~$0.024 3524.

Market betting implies a strong chance SENT lists into a >$600M FDV, which translates to prices above ~$0.017 given a 34.36B supply, while the $200M–$400M FDV band implies ~$0.006–$0.012 as the downside tail 35. Pre-TGE mechanics (oversubscription caps) and AI-token launch behavior suggest elevated volatility in the first 24–72 hours, reinforcing a wide but FDV-anchored distribution one day post-TGE 93313.

Sentient disclosed a total supply of 34,359,738,368 SENT and a community-heavy allocation (e.g., 44% community incentives/airdrops; 19.55% ecosystem/R&D), establishing the base for FDV-to-price conversions at TGE 516. Within the community allocation, 30% is set to unlock at TGE (~13% of total supply), which shapes initial circulating supply and near-term sell pressure dynamics 3120. Pre-TGE sales via Binance Wallet used an over-subscription model with a per-user cap of 3 BNB, concentrating early distribution and potentially tightening initial float and order-book depth 91533. Historical notes caution that highly oversubscribed listings often see sizable early volatility, which is consistent with AI token launches during their first 72 hours 3313.

Polymarket odds reported by media show 99% probability FDV >$200M, 87% >$400M, and 83% >$600M, implying most mass above the $600M threshold 335. Given the 34.36B supply, these FDV levels correspond to implied prices of roughly ~$0.0058 (>$200M), ~$0.0116 (>$400M), and ~$0.0175 (>$600M), anchoring a distribution center above ~$0.017 if those odds hold into day one 53. Pre-market references near ~$0.024 and trackers around ~$0.0237 further support a >$600M FDV anchor (e.g., ~$0.024 implies ~>$800M FDV), aligning with the bullish odds concentration 242714. This framework yields a quantitatively grounded translation from valuation probabilities to one-day post-TGE price ranges rather than unconstrained speculation 3524.

News and trackers cited pre-market levels around ~$0.024, offering a practical anchor for opening day pricing and sentiment calibration 12427. Binance’s initial sale structure (3 BNB per user; over-subscription) and Alpha program mechanics may influence early token distribution and post-TGE airdrop flow, shaping one-day liquidity and slippage conditions 93015. Media and exchange notes warn that strongly oversubscribed launches tend to exhibit higher initial volatility, which is reinforced by observations about AI-themed token launches in their first 72 hours 3313. Together, these constraints and anchors suggest a wide opening distribution but one biased toward the FDV-implied mid-teens-cent levels, with meaningful tails 3524.

Using Polymarket threshold odds and the published supply, a probability-consistent partition is: Bear (FDV $200M–$400M): ~$0.0058–$0.0116 (probability ≈ 12% = 99%–87%), Base (FDV $400M–$600M): ~$0.0116–$0.0175 (probability ≈ 4% = 87%–83%), Bull (FDV >$600M): >~$0.0175 (probability ≈ 83%) 35. Pre-market anchors near ~$0.024 and comments about a ~>$1B FDV ceiling being discussed suggest the bull mass plausibly spans ~$0.017–$0.03+, with ~$0.03 (~$1B FDV) as an upper focal point if liquidity and sentiment are supportive on day one 242714. Early-period volatility warnings and sector behavior for AI tokens temper the bull case by emphasizing path risk, slippage, and headline sensitivity within 24–72 hours after TGE 1333. Netting these inputs, a day-1 distribution centered around ~$0.017–$0.030 with materially non-zero lower tails (~$0.006–$0.012) and a thinner upper tail >$0.03 is the most consistent synthesis of current odds, supply math, and pre-market signals 3524.

 

 

Would you like me to track SENT’s day-1 live prices versus FDV thresholds (>$200M/$400M/$600M) and update the implied distribution in real time as the TGE unfolds?