V3 Research
XPL vs LINEA — which token is more likely to pump harder at launch
Binance
Binance Futures announced that XPLUSDT perpetual contracts will open for pre-market trading on 22 Aug 2025 at 09:30 UTC, allowing traders up to 5× leverage and marking the first centralized venue for the token’s derivatives.
Binance
The Binance Futures XPLUSDT contract shows a mark price around $0.5667, 24-hour high of 0.6445, low of 0.5380, and volume exceeding 266 million XPL, highlighting active speculative interest and noticeable intraday volatility.
AInvest
AInvest reports XPL price hitting $0.45 on Hyperliquid, triggering 1,200 percent annualized funding for longs, with $49 million volume and $33 million open interest, underlining extreme leverage and speculative enthusiasm surrounding the token.
Binance
Binance Square analysis explains how large holders timed Hyperliquid’s XPL pre-market thin liquidity to profit, with early investors shorting for hedge only to be squeezed when aggressive buys ignited cascading liquidations.

Conclusion

XPL is more likely to experience a sharper launch-day spike than LINEA. This is attributed to its history of triple-digit pre-market spikes, significant demand from larger traders, and limited supply. In contrast, LINEA’s initial trading already shows rapid price declines and a much larger circulating supply around launch 12322333632.

Winner’s Key Advantages – XPL

  • Demonstrated Potential: Experienced nearly a 200% surge within five minutes on Hyperliquid, indicating ability for significant price increases in low liquidity environments 1211.
  • High Funding Rates: Long funding rates reached 1,200% APY with $49 million in volume and $33 million in open interest, indicating traders' willingness to pay high premiums for potential upside 3.
  • Consistent Premiums: Maintained a 20–30% price premium versus spot prices even after pullbacks, suggesting continuous speculative interest 22.
  • Leverage Considerations: Binance will list XPL/USD with a maximum of 5x leverage, which can amplify moves but potentially limit forced selling, helping maintain upward price movement 110.

Comparison Metrics

MetricXPLLINEA
Circulating supply at TGE Not yet fixed; implied to be small, boosting scarcity narrative 14 15.8 billion tokens (22% of 72 billion) – large immediate float 32
Pre-market price range $0.45–$1.80 extremes, currently around $0.55–$0.69 with premiums 31722 Traded at $0.09, then fell below $0.04 in OTC/pre-market 3336
Historical intraday move +200% in 5 minutes (documented) 12 -55% in first OTC week ($0.09→$0.04) 3336
Whale activity Multiple whale squeezes, noted $5 million deposits 4515 Incentive programs draw LPs, but no comparable squeeze evidence yet 4041

Risk-Reward Assessment

  • XPL: Offers highest potential upside but is heavily susceptible to manipulation. Past squeezes have caused significant losses to short positions, including large funds like Selini Capital 37. Regulatory scrutiny or sudden liquidity withdrawal could swiftly reverse gains 513.
  • LINEA: Benefits from broader ecosystem support, such as Ignition and LP rewards, which might foster steady adoption 4041. However, its considerable free float and early price downturn suggest smaller initial volatility spikes. Bearish projections indicate it could open as low as $0.07, tempering launch expectations 3236.

Implications & Outlook

Short-term momentum traders interested in a launch-day spike are likely to favor XPL due to its history of rapid, significant price swings and continued premium in derivative markets. On the other hand, longer-term investors may prefer LINEA for its greater liquidity and supporting incentives, although its immediate price surge potential is limited by substantial supply and early price declines. Thus, for pure launch-day volatility exposure, XPL appears the more promising candidate, provided traders can withstand the significant manipulation and liquidation risks evidenced in its pre-market performance 122822.
5 hours ago